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The numbers of cases and deaths in some parts of the country are looking better than expected. Did we overreact with all the distancing measures and closures?

Data and Metrics Infection and Spread

A: So much no. No, no, nopeity nope.

It’s very tempting to Monday morning quarterback the decisions that cities and states have made over the past few weeks, and the recommendations from the CDC. The physical distancing measures, the school closures and the near total shut-down of the economy feel extreme, particularly given some glimmers of good news around the country that curves are flattening and peak case loads or deaths are lower than orignally projected? Did we overdo it? Could we have avoided these cases *without* so much social and economic collateral?

Dr. Jeremy Faust put it this way to Wolf Blitzer: “If you have a fire, evacuate, and the fire department puts out the fire, nobody’s going to say, ‘Oh, no one died, so why did we evacuate?'” It’s the same with COVID-19.

The reason we’re seeing these flattened curves and reduced mortality and case estimates is very much *because* of the hard work we’ve all put in to stay home. It’s working!

This headline from several weeks ago was prescient.

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