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Infection and Spread

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What accounts for the recent drop in COVID-19 cases in the US?

Data and Metrics Infection and Spread

Q: It looks like Covid-19 infection rates have dropped significantly in the US since the vaccine became available. Is the vaccine already having an impact? What else would account for the drop?” A: Of all the possible explanations — vaccination, immunity from prior infection, behavior change, seasonality, and less testing — the best answer seems to Read more…

Does in-person schooling contribute to COVID-19 spread?

Infection and Spread School

A: It’s complicated. TL;DR: Two new well-designed studies find evidence that in-person schooling *does not* contribute to COVID spread when baseline community spread is LOW, but that in-person schooling *does* contribute to worsening COVID metrics when baseline COVID transmission is high. Thus far the research on schools and COVID-19 has been quite muddy, but two Read more…

What new information do we have about the B.1.1.7 variant?

Biology/Immunity Infection and Spread Vaccines

A: This is an evolving situation. Actions today could result in great success or tragic loss. Key take aways— B.1.1.7 is in the US. Growing evidence suggests the B.1.1.7 variant spreads more easily than previous variants. New evidence supports the hypothesis that current vaccines are effective against B.1.1.7. Early efforts to contain B.1.1.7 buys time Read more…

I’m reading that the new strain of COVID-19 is 70% more transmissible. What does this mean? How transmissible was the first strain?

Infection and Spread

A: “Transmissibility” in infectious disease means how readily it is passed from one person to another, given the peculiarities of a specific time and place (in this case, in the UK this Fall). Transmissibility is measured in numbers with something called R-value. The R-value for the old SARS-CoV-2 variant was hovering right around 1 (in Read more…

Does someone who has been vaccinated still need to wear a mask and take other precautions?

Infection and Spread Vaccines

A: Yes. We don’t yet know whether the vaccines prevent someone from being infectious. The existing COVID-19 vaccine trials focused on a specific endpoint – symptomatic COVID-19 disease. We know that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were close to 95% efficacious in preventing disease (YAY!!). But wouldn’t we expect the vaccine to also stop Read more…