Friendly Pop Quiz! Which of these two statements sounds more impressive? (1) “Terrific Treatment reduced COVID mortality risk 50%!” (2) “Terrific Treatment reduced COVID mortality risk from 2 per 100 to 1 per 100!” The first of these two equivalent statements is, of course, the “right” answer. Which is why we scientists – in the Read more…
A: We recommend checking this awesome data exploration tool from Harvard University’s Global Health Institute. We’ve talked a lot here at Dear Pandemic about how important community spread of COVID is, and how it’s necessary for anything like safe reopening in any setting–from first grades to zoos. The map at the top of the Path Read more…
A: We are likely UNDER counting official deaths due to COVID-19. How do we know? While we are not necessarily good at attributing deaths accurately to specific causes, developed countries are good at counting ALL deaths. While some deaths attributed to COVID-19 would have occurred during this period anyway, we can calculate “EXCESS MORTALITY” – Read more…
A: TL;DR Whether the positivity rate is 14% or 30% for kids, Florida still has a COVID problem. And with respect to the data error, we need to have a little understanding. Public health departments are trying to do something very difficult on shoestring budgets. Data collection in a crisis is messy and sometimes we Read more…
A: Let’s be sure we know what these numbers are telling us, and what they are not. The Florida Sun Sentinel recently reported that “Nearly one-in-three children tested for the new coronavirus in Florida has been positive.” Specifically, that’s 17,000 total positive tests among children. What’s more, 4 Florida children have died of COVID-19. What Read more…
A: The death toll has been HIGH (specifics below), -We are likely UNDER counting deaths due to COVID-19. -While some deaths attributed to COVID-19 would have occurred during this period anyway, we can calculate “EXCESS MORTALITY” – the number of deaths above and beyond those that would have been expected based on previous years. Deaths Read more…
A: Timing, timing, timing. And some other factors too. As this Vox article notes, “The sinking death rates reflect the state of the pandemic a month or more ago, experts say, when the original hot spots had been contained and other states had only just begun to open up restaurants and other businesses.” We have Read more…
A: Good scientific metrics require accurate measurement and must be reflective of the situation in real life. Unfortunately, Covid-19 creates opportunities for metrics upon metrics, some of which are not incredibly useful in guiding actions to stop the spread of the disease. With the help of a recent piece in the Washington Post, we will Read more…
A: Nope. Based on recent data from the CDC, we can see that starting in mid-March there have been thousands of excess deaths (overall deaths compared to historical mortality patterns) that have not been counted as COVID-19 deaths. This likely under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths is especially true in places that have been harder hit by Read more…
Q: If I want to look at graphs of COVID-19 cases and compare across countries, should I look at graphs that are adjusted for country population size (for example, number of cases per 100,000 people) or just the total number of cases? A: Hey, whatever floats your boat, we won’t judge, but there’s a good Read more…
A: Yes, very likely. Since thus far most COVID-19 deaths are only recorded as such if the person has tested positive prior to death, deaths at home or in nursing/care homes and even in hospitals may not be counted. In New York City this week, officials released additional data on “presumptive” cases due to their Read more…
StatNews has produced a cool new data dashboard with county-level COVID preparedness scores. The tool synthesizes a variety of county-level factors (e.g. access to care, % population at risk for severe infections, and socioeconomic vulnerability) and incorporates epidemiological estimates from a leading modeling group (IHME at the University of Washington). EDITED UPDATE: The dashboard is Read more…
A: Definitely not positive psychology! The positivity rate is simply the fraction of people who test positive for COVID-19 out of all the people who get tested. It is important because it is a rough indicator of how much of the true extent of COVID-19 infection is being detected and diagnosed. In other words, a Read more…
A: The official numbers are most likely an undercount of actual COVID-19 related deaths. Read this Twitter feed for a breakdown of the types of COVID-19 deaths written by fellow demographer Andrew Noymer. The numbers on the dashboards only include those deaths that fall into Category 1, confirmed COVID-19 cases. Category 2 includes deaths that Read more…
A: The real truth lies in the numbers that we don’t have….yet. This Economist graphic sums it up well….what we really need to know are the excess deaths, that is the additional deaths, (outside of top reasons for death) not just those officially attributed to COVID-19. Links: Economist Original FB post
A: It is complicated, but can be summed up well in this article by 538. TL; DR there are three primary factors: 1) Exponential growth makes models have great variation (think the estimates of 200,000 deaths vs. 2 million deaths); 2) There are many unknown factors (such as regarding the true rates of infected persons); Read more…
Even more reasons for collective vigilance: New data from CDC the suggests that young people make up a significant fraction of those hospitalized with COVID-19 thus far in the US: 38% of those hospitalized were between 20 and 54, with nearly half of ICU admissions under age 65. Fortunately, the youngest age group, people 19 Read more…
For those who dig data (viz): the worldometers website provides a helpful COVID-19 data dashboard updated daily. Posted by Lindsey Leininger H/T Aron Fischer Link to original FB post
