Have BA.5 cases peaked? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?

COVID Variants Infection and Spread

A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve!).

In the U.S. there is some indication that hospitalizations during this BA.5 wave have peaked. Since hospitalizations are a lagging indicator of infections, this should mean we are on the downward slope of the current wave. In the UK, the ONS infection study confirmed a decrease in infection numbers in the last couple of weeks.

When cases peak, it can feel like we are in the clear. It would be welcome news if BA.5 falls as fast as it has risen. The Nerdy Girls are cheering on that “exponential decay” (when cases halve rather than double every few days). But we do need to temper this feel-good moment with a bit of caution.

📉 Even on the downhill side of a steep peak, there are A LOT of cases. So that feeling we all have that everyone we know has COVID-19 will likely stick around a bit longer. This means your chances of being exposed to COVID interacting with others is still high, even if those chances are getting smaller rather than larger each day.

More accurately gauging the risk of exposure around you is one way you can help keep you and yours safer during these now recurring COVID waves. High risk of exposure doesn’t disappear the moment we pass a peak, so hang in there with extra layers of precautions a bit longer.

Stay Safe, Stay Well.

Those Nerdy Girls

Read more in this post from peak of the OG Omicron wave back in late January.

Link to Original FB Post