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Uncertainty and Misinformation

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Are we OVER or UNDER counting COVID-19 deaths?

Data and Metrics Data Literacy Uncertainty and Misinformation

A: We are likely UNDER counting official deaths due to COVID-19. How do we know? While we are not necessarily good at attributing deaths accurately to specific causes, developed countries are good at counting ALL deaths. While some deaths attributed to COVID-19 would have occurred during this period anyway, we can calculate “EXCESS MORTALITY” – Read more…

Tips for Sniffing out Scientific Subterfuge

Uncertainty and Misinformation

As we’ve written about numerous times, randomized controlled trial evidence to-date has universally failed to find that hydroxychloroquine benefits COVID patients. Now we’re hearing reports that some confused soul – bless their heart – has decided to use the “randomized” label on an observational, cross-country comparison demonstrating the opposite. Luckily, fellow Nerdy-Girl-in-Spirit, Your local epidemiologist, Read more…

Are there evidence-based tips for dealing with the uncertain state of ……everything?!

Mental Health Uncertainty and Misinformation

A: Our brains are wired to despise uncertainty. Cognitive scientists advise a COMPLY – CONSOLIDATE – CONSULT strategy to help cope. Context: During a pandemic – and this current one is clearly on brand – uncertainty reigns. As Drs. Geeta Menon and Ellie Kyung articulate in a recent Harvard Business Review article, it’s natural to Read more…

What is the real risk of death from COVID-19? Is it actually worse than the flu?

Biology/Immunity Infection and Spread Uncertainty and Misinformation

A: It’s complicated…. but YES! As a demographer and epidemiologist, mortality rates are in my wheelhouse so to speak, but getting a handle on COVID-19 has challenged us all. First some definitions: Case Fatality Rate (CFR): % of confirmed cases who die. In the U.S., the estimated CFR is currently 4.33% In the U.K., the Read more…

HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE FOR HOSPITALIZED COVID PATIENTS?

Treatments Uncertainty and Misinformation

THE DATA (STILL) SUGGEST “NO” New data out of the Detroit area find that hospitalized COVID patients receiving hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were less likely to die than those not receiving the drug. Sensational headlines ensued. The scientific community sighed in disappointment and frustration. Why? (1) Administration of HCQ was NOT RANDOMIZED (2) The HCQ and non-HCQ Read more…

Can you settle the controversy around hydroxychloroquine? What is the latest news around this drug?

Treatments Uncertainty and Misinformation

A. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) made headlines recently because a published observational study that raised alarms about its safety was retracted by the study’s authors. What does this mean? The results of scientific studies traditionally go through a rigorous review process by other researchers who were not involved in the original study. After this process, the article Read more…

Whoa, what is this I hear about the WHO announcing that asymptomatic COVID-19 spread is rare?!

Infection and Spread Uncertainty and Misinformation

UPDATE (at bottom) Q: I thought that is why we have to be so careful; this is so confusing! A: Take a deep breath—despite the click-bait headlines coming out of yesterday’s rather unclear statement, nothing dramatic has changed about what we know about COVID-19 spread. The important distinction is between TRULY asymptomatic people who NEVER Read more…