The Office of National Statistics in England just released some comprehensive new data comparing deaths from ALL causes by COVID vaccination status.
Across all age groups, death rates are consistently lower among vaccinated vs. unvaccinated people. You can also clearly see the spikes in mortality associated with the Delta & Omicron waves that happen only in unvaccinated people.
These data are not meant to estimate precise vaccine efficacy. People who get vaccinated are often different in many ways compared to people who choose not to get vaccinated. For example, they may be more conscientious of other safety precautions or health behaviors. On the other hand, people who are immunocompromised are more likely to get vaccinated early. This is likely what’s going on in the 18-39-year-old group in the figure below. Because England rolled out their vaccines strictly starting at the oldest ages, any 18-39 year-olds who were vaccinated early were in the most clinically vulnerable priority groups who had higher baseline mortality.
It makes sense that the gap between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups narrows over time due to:
• Unvaccinated people most susceptible to COVID deaths have already died
• Increased immunity from prior infection among unvaccinated who survive
• Waning vaccine immunity/new variants with immune escape
There is no evidence that people with the COVID vaccine are dying at higher rates. Quite the opposite, unvaccinated people have died at much higher rates during the last two years.
Stay safe, stay well.
Those Nerdy Girls
Thanks to my colleague Colin Angus (@victimofmaths on twitter) for great data visualization and twitter thread on this topic.
Source: UK Office for National Statistics