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Uncertainty and Misinformation

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So the CDC just released data that said 94% of U.S. COVID-19 deaths had underlying medical conditions?

Data and Metrics Data Literacy Uncertainty and Misinformation

A: FALSE. We’ve heard this interpretation is making the rounds, but it’s just not correct. What did the CDC data say? The report summarized all deaths in the U.S. from Feb until August 22nd with COVID-19 on the death certificate (161,392 total deaths). The CDC reports that for 6% of these deaths COVID-19 was the Read more…

What’s the deal with the news that COVID-19 immunity only lasts up to 3 months?

Biology/Immunity Infection and Spread Uncertainty and Misinformation

A: NOPE In a news story picked up by many media outlets yesterday, headlines regarding the duration of immunity were inferred from recent CDC guidance on quarantine. The relevant sentence from the CDC was: “People who have tested positive for COVID-19 do not need to quarantine or get tested again for up to 3 months Read more…

Are we OVER or UNDER counting COVID-19 deaths?

Data and Metrics Data Literacy Uncertainty and Misinformation

A: We are likely UNDER counting official deaths due to COVID-19. How do we know? While we are not necessarily good at attributing deaths accurately to specific causes, developed countries are good at counting ALL deaths. While some deaths attributed to COVID-19 would have occurred during this period anyway, we can calculate “EXCESS MORTALITY” – Read more…

Tips for Sniffing out Scientific Subterfuge

Uncertainty and Misinformation

As we’ve written about numerous times, randomized controlled trial evidence to-date has universally failed to find that hydroxychloroquine benefits COVID patients. Now we’re hearing reports that some confused soul – bless their heart – has decided to use the “randomized” label on an observational, cross-country comparison demonstrating the opposite. Luckily, fellow Nerdy-Girl-in-Spirit, Your local epidemiologist, Read more…

Are there evidence-based tips for dealing with the uncertain state of ……everything?!

Mental Health Uncertainty and Misinformation

A: Our brains are wired to despise uncertainty. Cognitive scientists advise a COMPLY – CONSOLIDATE – CONSULT strategy to help cope. Context: During a pandemic – and this current one is clearly on brand – uncertainty reigns. As Drs. Geeta Menon and Ellie Kyung articulate in a recent Harvard Business Review article, it’s natural to Read more…

What is the real risk of death from COVID-19? Is it actually worse than the flu?

Biology/Immunity Infection and Spread Uncertainty and Misinformation

A: It’s complicated…. but YES! As a demographer and epidemiologist, mortality rates are in my wheelhouse so to speak, but getting a handle on COVID-19 has challenged us all. First some definitions: Case Fatality Rate (CFR): % of confirmed cases who die. In the U.S., the estimated CFR is currently 4.33% In the U.K., the Read more…

HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE FOR HOSPITALIZED COVID PATIENTS?

Treatments Uncertainty and Misinformation

THE DATA (STILL) SUGGEST “NO” New data out of the Detroit area find that hospitalized COVID patients receiving hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were less likely to die than those not receiving the drug. Sensational headlines ensued. The scientific community sighed in disappointment and frustration. Why? (1) Administration of HCQ was NOT RANDOMIZED (2) The HCQ and non-HCQ Read more…